4 Comments
User's avatar
Pxx's avatar

It's a positive development for anyone, especially in the US, whose livelyhood benefits from international trade. Will the hawks in the US gov give up? Probably not. When direct action is too costly, their typical playbook is third-country shenanigans. Nexperia becomes an important test case now. Nevertheless I'm cautiously optimistic.

Expand full comment
Rafael, Zhuge Liang Disciple's avatar

Why? Forgot about the current situation wrt Venezuela and Iran? There's no lasting truce with these people.

Expand full comment
Pxx's avatar

You're not wrong. It's a 1 year deal after all.

I will say there are examples like Yemen - where the US forces actually get hit a few times, and they decide it's more prudent to back away.

Expand full comment
Rafael, Zhuge Liang Disciple's avatar

Well said too. But will Netanyahu refrain from lashing out if he's backed into a corner in the coming months? I doubt it. Will this U.S. admin then, even if un-premeditated, refrain from supporting Israel? I also doubt it...

I'm not this "bearish" out of pleasure. I just see so many risks, that I can't see how to avoid major tensions in the near future.

I hope the Chinese leadership can improve its military's issues as fast as possible, and that they don't relax too much on rare earths exports controls.

Expand full comment