It's a positive development for anyone, especially in the US, whose livelyhood benefits from international trade. Will the hawks in the US gov give up? Probably not. When direct action is too costly, their typical playbook is third-country shenanigans. Nexperia becomes an important test case now. Nevertheless I'm cautiously optimistic.
Well said too. But will Netanyahu refrain from lashing out if he's backed into a corner in the coming months? I doubt it. Will this U.S. admin then, even if un-premeditated, refrain from supporting Israel? I also doubt it...
I'm not this "bearish" out of pleasure. I just see so many risks, that I can't see how to avoid major tensions in the near future.
I hope the Chinese leadership can improve its military's issues as fast as possible, and that they don't relax too much on rare earths exports controls.
I hope you find what I am about to share as interesting as I do.
The U.S. White House has released a document on their interpretation of what China agreed to in the negotiations in South Korea. Specifically, with respect to rare earth minerals, here is what the document says:
"China will issue general licenses valid for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite for the benefit of U.S. end users and their suppliers around the world. The general license means the de facto removal of controls China imposed in April 2025 and October 2022."
Note the U.S. side is suggesting the removal of ALL RARE EARTH EXPORT CONTROLS.
This interpretation seems rather inconsistent with the Chinese readout.
Mr. Gao...So, this is quite interesting. The official Chinese readout does not mention the key phrase 'rare earth minerals', but one can infer it from what they DID say about suspending the Oct 9th specific export control measures...
"The Chinese side will suspend implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and will study and refine specific plans."
It seems the phrase "refine specific plans" is doing a LOT of work in this sentence.
Is it true that this suspension does NOT go into effect immediately, but has a December implementation date? Mr. Trump will need to be on his best behavior or the 'refinement of specific plans' may proceed in a manner not to his liking.
It's a positive development for anyone, especially in the US, whose livelyhood benefits from international trade. Will the hawks in the US gov give up? Probably not. When direct action is too costly, their typical playbook is third-country shenanigans. Nexperia becomes an important test case now. Nevertheless I'm cautiously optimistic.
Why? Forgot about the current situation wrt Venezuela and Iran? There's no lasting truce with these people.
You're not wrong. It's a 1 year deal after all.
I will say there are examples like Yemen - where the US forces actually get hit a few times, and they decide it's more prudent to back away.
Well said too. But will Netanyahu refrain from lashing out if he's backed into a corner in the coming months? I doubt it. Will this U.S. admin then, even if un-premeditated, refrain from supporting Israel? I also doubt it...
I'm not this "bearish" out of pleasure. I just see so many risks, that I can't see how to avoid major tensions in the near future.
I hope the Chinese leadership can improve its military's issues as fast as possible, and that they don't relax too much on rare earths exports controls.
Mr. Gao...
I hope you find what I am about to share as interesting as I do.
The U.S. White House has released a document on their interpretation of what China agreed to in the negotiations in South Korea. Specifically, with respect to rare earth minerals, here is what the document says:
"China will issue general licenses valid for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite for the benefit of U.S. end users and their suppliers around the world. The general license means the de facto removal of controls China imposed in April 2025 and October 2022."
Note the U.S. side is suggesting the removal of ALL RARE EARTH EXPORT CONTROLS.
This interpretation seems rather inconsistent with the Chinese readout.
White House Document linked below.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/
Mr. Gao...So, this is quite interesting. The official Chinese readout does not mention the key phrase 'rare earth minerals', but one can infer it from what they DID say about suspending the Oct 9th specific export control measures...
"The Chinese side will suspend implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and will study and refine specific plans."
It seems the phrase "refine specific plans" is doing a LOT of work in this sentence.
Is it true that this suspension does NOT go into effect immediately, but has a December implementation date? Mr. Trump will need to be on his best behavior or the 'refinement of specific plans' may proceed in a manner not to his liking.
it’s actually immediately, I think Chinese gov also need time to build up its capacity of implementing those sanctions if it’s needed
https://open.substack.com/pub/nukoud/p/tariff-truce-trump-and-xi-hit-pause?r=1t6wru&utm_medium=ios