On May.5, Chinese President Xi Jinping started his visit to Europe. According to the official, this journey will include France, Serbia, and Hungary. The question arises: why did Xi select France as the first stop on his European journey?
Today, the social media account “Yuyuan Tantian“(玉渊谭天) published a commentary article that shed light on Europe's concerns regarding strategic autonomy and praised French President Emmanuel Macron's stance on maintaining European strategic autonomy. (Many Chinese watchers believe that China Media Group (CMG) manages "Yuyuan Tantian.") Some Chinese international relations analysts believe that Macron's willingness to create some distance between Europe and the US is the reason why Xi chose France as his first stop on his European tour. They interpret Yuyuan Tantian’s article as a call for Europe to bolster its strategic autonomy instead of following the US.
An interesting fact is that I haven’t seen European mainstream media outlets talking about strategic autonomy during the coverage of Xi’s trip to France. (Please let me know if I’m wrong)
The pieces argue that European countries have been discussing "strategic autonomy" more frequently, but they face challenges due to the gap between goals and actions. The escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and the US "Inflation Reduction Act" have hindered Europe's ability to maintain strategic autonomy in energy, economy, and industry.
The piece believes that the exchange and cooperation between China and France have become a positive factor in "strategic autonomy." France's position in Europe and the exemplary effect of Sino-French relations contribute to this positive perception. In the field of new energy vehicles, some European politicians have followed the US in hyping up concerns about Chinese electric vehicles. However, the cooperation between Chinese and French companies in the "Battery Valley" project demonstrates a mutual-benefit relationship that enhances France's competitiveness in the global new energy vehicle industry.
Here I attach the full translation:
On May 5th, President Xi Jinping officially began his state visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary.
This trip marks President Xi's return to Europe after a five-year hiatus. Coincidentally, five years ago, President Xi chose Europe for his first overseas visit of the year, and this visit is also President Xi's first overseas trip this year.
Why choose Europe as the first stop for head-of-state diplomacy?
Five years ago, President Xi used a phrase to annotate his European trip that year - friendship is not a coincidental choice, but a result of like-mindedness.
In this increasingly turbulent world, how can China and Europe continue this like-mindedness?
We found the keywords to answer this question from the data.
While browsing the reports of European countries on this visit, Tan Zhu discovered that the term "strategic autonomy" frequently appeared. From a data perspective, this trend had already begun last year.After analyzing the number of reports related to "Europe" and "strategic autonomy" in European media, Tan Zhu found that last year saw the most discussions on "strategic autonomy" among European media, with the number of related reports being nearly 10 times that of five years ago.
And these discussions were mostly negative. At the beginning of last year, the Carnegie Europe Center interviewed thirteen European think tanks under the title "Is European Strategic Autonomy Over?" The vast majority of experts believed that "European strategic autonomy" faces challenges.
One important reason is the gap between goals and actions among European countries.
"European strategic autonomy" is a concept that European countries have proposed for a long time. In 2021, the European Commission further proposed "open strategic autonomy," expanding the scope of strategic autonomy from security and defense to areas such as energy autonomy, maintaining economic sovereignty, and ensuring the autonomy of industrial and supply chains.
Against the backdrop of a changing world, it's normal for the European Commission to "update" the connotation of strategic autonomy. But how about the implementation results after the goals were updated? We can sort out what has happened in the past few years:
After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, European countries followed the United States in sanctioning Russian energy, which instead led to a high dependence on high-priced US liquefied natural gas, with many countries experiencing tight energy supplies and exacerbated inflation;
The US Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes forced the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, causing the euro to fall to its lowest level against the US dollar in nearly 20 years, with large amounts of capital flowing out of European countries and into the United States;
The United States introduced the "Inflation Reduction Act," implementing a large number of measures including high subsidies, causing many European companies to shift their investment plans from Europe to the United States.
It can be said that European countries have basically failed to maintain strategic autonomy in any of the above-mentioned areas.
Data can also validate Tan Zhu's judgment.
These are the negative sentiment keywords that co-occur with "strategic autonomy" in major European media reports, including issues such as "critical raw materials, development, government, strategic autonomy, foreign policy, security, green transition, economy, challenges, industry, energy, and countries," which can be summarized into two dimensions of "development" and "security," and these issues are also the sources of anxiety for Europeans.
Cui Hongjian, who has long followed the European situation, told Tan Zhu that whether it is the Ukrainian crisis or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Europeans have found it difficult to push the situation in a direction that aligns with European interests.
This has also exacerbated the pessimistic sentiment among European countries regarding "European strategic autonomy." But is this real-world predicament unsolvable?
After analyzing the positive sentiment keywords co-occurring with "strategic autonomy" in major European media reports, including "cooperation, world, future, climate change, innovation, EU countries, agreement, report, French President," Tan Zhu found that "French President" is a high-frequency word among them. The peak of related reports was during Macron's visit to China last year
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President Xi Jinping stated during his meeting with Macron that China has always viewed Europe as an independent pole in a multipolar world.
Macron also expressed during the meeting that France adheres to an independent and autonomous foreign policy, advocates European strategic autonomy, opposes confrontation and division, and opposes camp confrontation.
After concluding his visit to China, Macron reiterated in an interview with the media on the return flight that Europe must strengthen its strategic autonomy.
So why has the exchange and cooperation between China and France become a positive factor in European media reports on "strategic autonomy"?
On the one hand, it is France's position in Europe. France is the only country that simultaneously holds memberships in the Group of Seven (G7), NATO, the European Union, and is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, playing an important role in multilateral mechanisms such as the EU.
But more importantly, it is the exemplary effect of Sino-French relations. Using France as a specific observation window, one can more intuitively see these positive factors.
Tan Zhu conducted keyword statistics and analysis on the press releases of China-France interactions at all levels this year and found that the words "coordination," "collaboration," and "consultation" appear in almost all press releases.
Through further distilling the text themes, it can be found that China and France hope to reach consensus on issues such as providing a fair and non-discriminatory competitive environment for enterprises of both countries through consultation.
In fact, this reflects the areas where European countries, including France, feel the most pain in terms of strategic autonomy.
We all know that the United States defines China as its "biggest competitor" and intends to contain China's development through suppression. In recent years, the increase in negative factors in China-EU relations is precisely because this strategic misjudgment is influencing the China policies of European countries.
This has led some European countries to view cooperation between China and Europe with an adversarial or precautionary mindset, just like the United States. The new energy field is a concentrated manifestation of this.
Recently, some European politicians have followed in the footsteps of US politicians, hyping up the so-called "overcapacity" of Chinese electric vehicles, claiming that China's new energy industry harms the interests of European and American enterprises and workers.
It is precisely because European countries dance to the tune of the United States on issues such as industrial policies and lack strategic autonomy that they have triggered European countries' anxiety and concerns about issues such as the "green transition." The negative sentiment keywords co-occurring with "strategic autonomy" in major European media reports include "critical raw materials, development, government, European Commission, foreign policy, security, green transition, industry, energy, country, challenges, economy."In fact, there are indeed some concerns about Chinese new energy vehicles in European countries.
These views believe that as Chinese manufacturing climbs up the value chain, China has begun to export high-end manufacturing products such as new energy vehicles back to Europe, which means that the complementary and win-win relationship between China and European countries no longer exists. Cooperating with China is increasing dependence on China, which will further cause Europe to lose strategic autonomy in the economic field.
But is this really the case? Let's take a look at how China and France interact in the field of new energy vehicles.
Tan Zhu looked at the French electric vehicle sales rankings and found that a car named "Spring" has long occupied the top three positions.
Few people may know that this car is related to China - it is produced by a company jointly established by a Chinese company, France's Renault, and Japan's Nissan. Unlike traditional exports, what this car represents is a new model of industrial interaction between China and France, and even between China and Europe.
First of all, the design of this car took into account the situation of the French market from the beginning. Due to the narrow streets in France, the size of this car is slightly smaller than other new energy vehicles.
Like other electric vehicles produced in China, the selling price of this car is also highly competitive in the French market, thanks to China's complete new energy vehicle industry chain and supply chain. Compared with companies from other countries, French companies have gone a step further in utilizing and leveraging the advantages of China's industrial chain and supply chain.
Take Renault as an example. Renault has established a joint venture with Chinese companies to produce batteries for new energy vehicles, deeply embedded in China's new energy vehicle industry chain. Moreover, they have actively promoted Chinese companies to invest in France and jointly built battery factories in France.
This also means that China's advantages in the field of new energy vehicles can not only be converted into the competitiveness of French companies' own products but also help French companies achieve localized production of products and drive France's competitiveness in the new energy vehicle industry.
Such cooperation is not an isolated case. Macron has proposed the goal of achieving 100% electric vehicles for new car sales in France by 2035. To this end, France's largest automobile manufacturing center, the Hauts-de-France region, has planned to build a "Battery Valley."
Chinese companies are deeply involved in the construction of the "Battery Valley" through cooperation with French companies. With the participation of Chinese companies, the Hauts-de-France region is not only building an industrial chain for the battery ecosystem but also starting to plan for upstream and downstream extensions, which will further enhance France's influence in the global new energy vehicle industry.
The practice of Sino-French business cooperation is the best response to the so-called concerns voiced by some European countries.
In fact, such win-win situations are not only happening in France.
In recent years, Chinese companies have also been increasingly building factories in European countries through overseas investments. Hungary, which President Xi Jinping plans to visit, is one of the important destinations for Chinese vehicle and battery manufacturers to venture into Europe.
Chinese companies are building Europe's largest battery manufacturing plant in Hungary. Recently, Chinese companies will also begin constructing their first passenger car production base in Europe in Hungary.
China is already in the middle and upper reaches of the new energy vehicle industry chain, and Chinese companies provide technology and funding. For Chinese vehicle companies, building factories overseas is a key step in shaping their international brand advantages. For European countries, the ecosystem brought by Chinese new energy vehicle companies is precisely what these countries need to shape the competitiveness of their local industries.
A Hungarian proverb says, "Companionship allows for further travel."
In fact, whether in the field of new energy vehicles or other fields, the economic and trade relations between China and Europe have never been about unilateral benefits. Take Hungary as an example. Hungary participates in the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" and is also a member of the China-Central and Eastern European Countries Cooperation Mechanism. Recently, Hungary's economic growth rate has been at the forefront of European countries.
Cooperation with China is not a relationship of dependence and control but a proactive choice by both parties for win-win value.
Cooperation with China responds to Europeans' anxiety about development. And development is the guarantee of security. European countries seeking paths for development in cooperation with China can also prompt them to find solutions to security issues.
Currently, European countries are mired in the quagmire of security and development issues hindering each other. Regional conflicts have dragged down the already weak European economy. With the risk of stagnation or even recession in development, European countries find it difficult to focus their energy on economic construction. The prolongation of regional conflicts has led European countries to increase military spending, with some European countries even seeing a 75% increase in military expenditure.
Due to the limitations of Europe's own production capacity, much of this significantly increased military spending is used to purchase weapons and equipment from the United States, further exacerbating European countries' dependence on the United States in security issues and thus losing Europe's strategic autonomy in security.
This vicious cycle has also led the European strategic community to propose the concept of "double loss" at this year's Munich Security Conference. They believe that Europe can only be "passively camped" in the game of great powers, thus becoming a "loser."
However, China has also shown European countries another possibility.
Cui Hongjian, who has long been observing the European situation, stated that from successfully mediating the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation last year to efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the world has witnessed China's respect for the rights and wrongs of facts and its non-alignment stance in dealing with international and regional hot issues.
This characteristic also makes China one of the few countries that can simultaneously maintain communication and dialogue with both parties to a conflict.
Currently, some European countries hope to work with China to promote the early restoration of peace and stability on the European continent.
The European political and strategic communities are also increasingly reflecting on their own predicament.
The reason why China can play a role in mediating and promoting talks in some regional conflicts is that China adheres to the concept of win-win. This concept also allows China to balance security and development and not establish its own security on the basis of insecurity in other countries.
Behind the win-win concept is China's consistent approach to handling matters - "harmony without uniformity."
This phrase comes from the "Analects." Five years ago, when President Xi Jinping visited France, President Macron presented President Xi Jinping with the first French version of the original "Guide to the Analects" published in France.
As two great civilizations in the world, China and Europe have many differences, but this does not affect the establishment of a "gentlemanly friendship" with shared goals between China and Europe.
Whether it is China or European countries, they should embrace the mindset of "harmony without uniformity" and become models for other countries in the process of interaction through practical actions.
Both sides should illuminate each other and then illuminate the world.