Who Briefs China's Top Decision-Makers on the Economy?

Dolphin Business Research Report Listed the Core Think Tanks Shaping Economic Policy

I was planning to have the Fifteenth FYP as the next topic, but I came across a very interesting research by Dolphin Business Research(海豚研究院) and think worth sharing.

They have compiled a list of experts who have participated in high-level economic seminars（经济形势座谈会） since 2012—specifically, those attended by the Chinese Premier and the CPC General Secretary Xi. These economic situation seminars serve as an important supplement to the traditional linear information transmission system, with more authentic feedback from the market compared to the layers of bureaucratic channels. In terms of the experts’ affiliations, there is a tripartite balance among official think tanks, top domestic academic institutions, and market-oriented economic research organizations.

The author believes these seminars are often closely aligned with current economic hotspots and demonstrate a strong problem-oriented approach. In recent years, these include macroeconomics, finance, local gov debt, real estate, and technological innovation. The participating experts also reflect a generational transition, featuring both veteran economists such as Wu Jinglian and Yu Yongding, as well as chief economists from securities firms and even Chinese financial writers.

The author of this piece is Huang Haitao, a researcher at Dolphin Business Research. According to their official website, they’ve been focusing on policy interpretation, executive training, and consulting.

Below is the full piece and list

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China’s Economic Brain Trust: Who Are the Go-To Advisers for the Top Leadership?中国经济智囊梳理：谁是最高层的座上宾？

On the afternoon of October 14, Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium with experts and entrepreneurs to discuss the economic situation, soliciting opinions and suggestions on current economic conditions and the next steps for economic work. During the meeting, Xu Qiyuan, Chen Binkai, Yang He, Zhang Yu, Li Hongfeng, Jiang Xin, Zhou Yuxiang, and Ye Guofu delivered speeches.

According to research by Dolphin Business Institute, this is the second such symposium convened by Premier Li this year. The first was held in April, with participants including Zhang Bin, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Li Xunlei, Chief Economist of Zhongtai International; and Shen Jianguang, Chief Economist of JD Group. Additionally, in January, Premier Li presided over a separate symposium involving experts, entrepreneurs, and representatives from education, science, culture, health, and sports sectors. Attendees included Zhang Hui, Dean of the School of Economics at Peking University, and Ren Shaobo, Party Secretary of Zhejiang University.

Holding regular economic situation symposiums with experts and entrepreneurs has become an institutionalized practice for China’s top leadership. To provide a comprehensive retrospective, Dolphin Business Institute has compiled a list of all experts who attended high-level economic symposiums between 2012 and 2025. A detailed analysis of this list reveals several notable patterns and characteristics.

1. A Stable Core Group of Experts with Consistent Influence

One of the most evident patterns is the presence of a relatively stable core group of experts who have been invited multiple times, serving as high-frequency advisors to policymakers. Among them, the following individuals stand out:

• Zhou Qiren (Professor, National School of Development at Peking University): Having participated in 2012, 2014, 2024 (attending both the Premier’s and the General Secretary’s symposiums), and 2025, he is a veteran advisor in the truest sense. Professor Zhou has long been dedicated to research on economic reform and played a key role in China’s rural reforms. Recognized as a “key contributor to China’s rural reform” and a “leading figure in economics during China’s transition period,” he is admired for his empirical, research-driven approach. His courses at Peking University are consistently oversubscribed, with students often lining up to secure a seat.

• Li Xunlei (Chief Economist, Zhongtai International): Having attended in 2014, 2019, 2023, and 2025, his participation underscores the sustained influence of market-oriented perspectives. Known as a “pioneer in China’s securities sell-side research system,” Li is one of the earliest experts in China’s securities market research and holds significant influence in macroeconomic and capital market studies.

• Liu Shijin (Former Deputy Director, Development Research Center of the State Council): Active in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016, he was a key figure in early-stage policy advisory. His research has profoundly influenced China’s economic policymaking. Emphasizing the transition of economic growth models, he advocates for high-quality development driven by reform and innovation. He also contributed to the drafting of key policy documents, including reports for the Third and Fifth Plenums of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the 19th CPC National Congress.

• Ma Jun (Director, Green Finance Committee of the China Finance Society): His repeated participation from 2012 to 2021 may be attributed to his unique professional background and expertise. He previously served as Chief Economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank and as Chief Economist of the Research Bureau at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), while also holding a role as a member of the PBOC’s Monetary Policy Committee.

• Wu Ge (Chief Economist, Changjiang Securities): Having attended in 2019, 2022, and 2024, he represents the voice of frontline macroeconomic research. Wu previously worked in the PBOC’s monetary policy department and served as an economist at the International Monetary Fund. He is a recipient of the Sun Yefang Economic Science Award, China’s highest honor in economics, as well as the Pushan Policy Research Award and the Liu Shibai Economics Award. He has also consistently won the “Forecast Cup” for economic predictions.

Other core participants include Bai Chong’en (Dean, School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, attended twice), Liu Yuanchun (President, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, attended four times), and Huang Yiping (Dean, National School of Development at Peking University, attended twice). The recurring presence of these experts indicates that top policymakers value input from economists with strong theoretical foundations, practical experience, and long-term research dedication.
2. Diverse Institutional Representation: A Tripartite Advisory System

The experts’ institutional affiliations reflect a diverse, tripartite structure comprising official think tanks, top universities, and market-oriented institutions:

• Top Universities and Academic Institutions: Peking University (particularly its National School of Development, with professors such as Lin Yifu, Zhou Qiren, Song Guoqing, Yao Yang, and Huang Yiping, collectively attending 11 times), Tsinghua University, Renmin University of China, and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences are the main contributors. This highlights the importance placed on academic research and theoretical foundations.

• Official and Semi-Official Think Tanks: Experts from institutions such as the Development Research Center of the State Council, the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, and the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research form another core group, offering closer proximity to the policymaking process.

• Market-Oriented Financial Institutions: A distinctive feature of these symposia is the frequent participation of chief economists from securities firms, including China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Zhongtai Securities, Changjiang Securities, Ping An Securities, and Yuekai Securities (e.g., Peng Wensheng, Li Xunlei, Wu Ge, Zhong Zhengsheng, and Luo Zhiheng). This reflects the leadership’s emphasis on insights, assessments, and early warnings from financial markets, making policy advice more grounded and diverse.

3. Institutionalized Frequency and Hierarchical Structure

These high-level economic symposia have become highly institutionalized and regularized:

• Frequency: Multiple meetings per year are the norm. They are typically held at key junctures: early in the year (January or February, to gauge economic trends for the year, sometimes before the National People’s Congress and the publication of the Government Work Report), mid-year (around July, to assess first-half performance and plan for the second half), and late in the year (October or November, to set the tone for the following year’s economic policies, potentially informing the Central Economic Work Conference). For instance, in both 2023 and 2024, the Premier chaired at least three such symposia.

• Hierarchy: The meetings are primarily organized at two levels: first, the “Economic Situation Experts and Entrepreneurs Symposium” chaired by the Premier, which is the most common format and typically held about three times a year; and second, the “Enterprises and Experts Symposium” chaired by the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, which is convened at a higher level, usually during periods of significant economic challenges or key transitions, as seen in 2016 and 2024.

4. Additional Observations

• Issue-Oriented Selection: The backgrounds of invited experts often align with current economic priorities. In recent years, there has been a noticeable focus on macroeconomics, finance, debt, real estate (e.g., Huang Yu), and technological innovation (e.g., He Yaling), reflecting shifting economic priorities.

• Intergenerational Transition: The list includes senior economists such as Wu Jinglian and Yu Yongding, alongside a growing number of younger chief economists like Luo Zhiheng and Zhang Yu, demonstrating a healthy intergenerational succession. The occasional inclusion of financial commentators such as Wu Xiaobo and Ma Guangyuan indicates a desire to incorporate diverse perspectives.

• Domestic and International Voices: The participants include chief economists from both Chinese and foreign institutions (e.g., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley), highlighting the inclusive and representative nature of these meetings. While domestic experts offer deep insights into local policies and market conditions, international economists provide global perspectives and cross-market comparisons. Bringing these two groups together ensures well-rounded, multidimensional discussions, fostering valuable insights and policy recommendations.

This list clearly outlines the “external brain trust” supporting China’s top economic decision-making: a mature system rooted in top academic institutions and official think tanks, deeply integrated with financial market insights, and supported by a stable, high-frequency core group of experts. This institutionalized, diversified advisory mechanism aims to pool wisdom from various sectors, enabling more scientific and precise assessments and decisions in the face of complex economic conditions.