What Perspectives Does Xi's Speech Reveal on China's Demographics?

Readouts of Xi's Key Speech on Population Policy Published in Qiushi (求是), the CPC's Flagship Journal

On Nov.16, CPC’s flagship journal, Qiushi求是, published Xi Jinping's speech addressing China's demographic challenges. While China's population issues have attracted global attention, there has been a notable shortage of insights into how the country's paramount leader perceives these challenges. (Besides South China Morning Post, they covered it well, and I really enjoyed reading SCMP) This newly published speech provides a rare window into Xi's understanding of China's declining population and his proposed solutions. The speech was delivered at the First Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission of the 20th CPC Central Committee on May 5, 2023

Thanks newsletter

Geopolitechs

for publishing the translation; I’d be able to do some of my personal readouts.

Xi Jinping participates in the Seventh National Census registration, responding to questions from the census taker/ image: Xinhua

1. First, we must fully affirm the correctness and effectiveness of the family planning policy. A huge population size is our basic national condition. We implemented family planning as a major decision based on the actual national conditions at a specific historical stage, effectively controlling excessively rapid population growth and the pressures it brought, thereby strongly supporting the cause of reform, opening up, and socialist modernization.

   Xi opens with a strong defense of historical family planning policies. Affirming these policies' “correctness and effectiveness” suggests the current policy is based on the original one instead of a U-turn. Acknowledging past achievements before introducing new approaches and establishing policy continuity.

2. At the same time, it also has positive effects, such as reducing pressure on resources and the environment and compelling economic development to shift from extensive expansion to intensive growth. Overall, population reduction has both advantages and disadvantages for economic and social development.

   Xi believes that the decreasing population brings not only negative effects but also positive influences. Suggesting that he views demographic changes might actually accelerate rather than hinder China's economic modernization. Shifting from quantity-focused, input-driven growth to quality-focused, efficiency-driven development.

3. In the past, population work was mainly focused on "management." In the future, as the scope of work becomes broader and more detailed, we must pay greater attention to methods of "guidance" and "incentives," shifting from relying mainly on governmental efforts to a model of government and society co-governance. We should deepen reforms in key areas, accelerate the formation of ideas, policies, regulations, and institutional mechanisms conducive to high-quality population development, and establish and improve a scientific public policy system for population and related fields. This will allow people to gain more from participating in and supporting high-quality population development. At the same time, we must avoid "quick fixes" and hastily implementing measures that may cause controversy.

   This approach operates on two levels:

   First, at the goal level, it’s no longer simply focusing on the numbers or “maintain current population“ but “high-quality population development. “ According to People’s Daily published on Nov.19 2024, the definition of this concept includes ”appropriate fertility levels, suitable population structure, excellent population quality, and reasonable population distribution and more”

   In terms of governance style, there is a clear shift away from regulatory policies toward incentive-based measures, reflecting a broader transformation from a management style to a service-oriented government. Decision-makers understand that allocating resources or compelling population growth through coercive measures would be totally counterproductive. Demographics is a long-term issue; overreaction with short-term policies is just a waste of resources.

4. To do a good job in population work in the new era, we must meet the people's expectations for a better life, uphold the principal position of the people, and closely integrate high-quality population development with a high-quality life for the people. We should combine "investing in things" with "investing in people," do our best within our capacity, and establish and improve a population service system covering all people and the entire life cycle.

   Previous policies have been focused on Investing in materials (投资于物). Xi now emphasizes “investing in people” through comprehensive social welfare systems. Could this shift reflect a deeper transformation in China's development model? I hope we can see actual policies elevating social security and labor protection.

5. We must align with new population transition trends to build a modern industrial system. Use consumption structure upgrades to lead industrial transformation and upgrading, and consider the impacts of population peaks and distribution changes in infrastructure layout.

   We must optimize regional economic layouts and territorial spatial systems. Improve mechanisms that link staffing, land supply, fiscal transfers, public services, and other factors with population increases and decreases, supporting the reasonable and orderly flow of population and labor forces.

   I believe we won't see the central government allowing local governments in population-outflow areas to conduct large-scale infrastructure investment. This statement also aligns with the trend of downsizing local governments in areas experiencing population outflow, specifically the “small county reform”(人口小县改革) being implemented across multiple regions. This reform requires the reorganization of Party and government institutions with similar functions, streamlining both institutions and staff positions. In Hequ County, Shanxi, which has already implemented the reform, 36 Party and government institutions were consolidated into 22, and public institution staff positions were reduced from 1,964 to 659.

   Thank you for reading my analysis; if you think that’s helpful, don’t hesitate to share it. If you have a different readout about the speech, please let me know, always happy to learn more about different analyses.

   If you want to read the full translation of Xi’s speech, I highly recommend reading this:

President Xi: population decline could benefit China's future development