Some Observations on the China-US London Talks

The new pattern of "Pause-Call-Restart-Another Deadlock" in China-US negotiations

After the talk in London, Both China and the US agreed “in principle” to a framework on how to implement the consensus reached by the previous Geneva talks. This negotiation follows the Xi-Trump call last Friday, when both sides agreed to another round of talk.

After the London talk, China's International Trade Negotiation Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang had a brief talk with journalists waiting outside, below is his remarks:

I‘d also have to say that while you were waiting outside very anxiously, the teams from China and the United States were also working very diligently inside. Over the past two days, the two teams had very in-deep exchanges. Our communication has been very professional, rational, in-depth, and candid. The two sides agreed in principle framework for implementing the consensus of the two heads of states in their phone call on June 5th, as well as the consensus of the meeting in Geneva. Both sides will report these discussions and the implementation framework we've agreed upon in principle to our respective leaders.

We hope that the progress made in this London meeting is conducive to increase trust between China and the United States, further promoting stable and sound development of China-U.S. trade and economic relations, and also to inject positive energy into world economic development.

当然我也要说，就在你在外边很辛苦地等候的时候，在大楼里面我们也非常努力地工作。在过去的两天时间里面，中美双方团队进行了很深入的交流，我们的沟通是非常专业、理性、深入和坦诚的，双方原则上就落实两国元首6月 5 号通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。双方将把这些会谈的情况以及原则达成的这种落实框架向各自的领导人汇报。

我们希望这次的伦敦会谈取得的进展，有利于中美之间进一步增进信任，进一步推动中美经贸关系稳定健康发展，也为全球经济的发展注入积极的正能量。

I'd like to emphasize the Chinese characterization of this meeting was "professional, rational, in-depth, and candid," whereas in Geneva, the description was "candid, in-depth, and constructive, with important consensus reached and substantive progress achieved." This shift in language could be interpreted as suggesting that limited new consensus was reached in the current talks. Some would argue that the talk was mainly about the implementation of the consensus in Geneva, so it’s natural that we don’t see new progress. I’d prefer the latter explanation.

Traditional diplomatic negotiations typically reach consensus at the technical level first, followed by high-level meetings between both sides to confirm agreements. However, current US-China trade negotiations have a distinct "pause-call-restart-another deadlock" pattern.

During specific negotiation phases, progress often stalls due to huge position gaps, such as tariff level or the fentanyl issue. Only after the heads of state establish high-level consensus through calls or meetings to "pause escalation" do negotiation teams resume contact and technical-level progress. This "high-level political direction followed by mid-level technical implementation" cycle proved the decisive role that high-level political will plays in bilateral strategic interactions. Phone calls no longer simply confirm negotiation outcomes but have become necessary prerequisites for "breaking the ice" to restart dialogue. We can also observe that in the latest talk in London, after the meeting, both sides need to get approved by respective leaders.

However, I won’t mix that with Trump’s way of negotiation, which highly relies on personal connections to resolve diplomatic issues. For the latest talk, different from Trump’s emphasizing his relationship with Xi, the Chinese readout of the dialogue has been really focusing on concrete topics like Taiwan and trade issues. So far, I haven’t seen China giving much space for Trump’s personal diplomacy.

Currently, after the latest Xi-Trump talk, we are at the stage of resuming technical negotiations. Hope both sides keep that momentum.

Below is the Chinese official readout just published, I’ve also done a translation:

当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。

何立峰表示，本次会议是在两国元首今年6月5日战略共识指引下开展的一次重要磋商。中方对中美经贸问题的态度和立场是明确的、一贯的。中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，中美在经贸领域合则两利、斗则俱伤。贸易战没有赢家，中方不愿打，但也不怕打。双方应通过平等对话、互利合作解决经贸分歧，中方对经贸磋商是有诚意的，也是有原则的。下一步，双方要按照两国元首通话达成的重要共识和要求，进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。中方重申，双方应相向而行，言必行、行必果，拿出恪守承诺的诚信精神和切实履行共识的努力行动，共同维护来之不易的对话成果，继续保持沟通对话，推动中美经贸关系行稳致远，为世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性。

美方表示，本次会议取得积极成果，进一步稳定了双边经贸关系，将按照两国元首通话要求，与中方相向而行，共同落实好本次会议共识。

On June 9-10 local time, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, China's lead negotiator for China-US economic and trade relations, held the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism in London with the US lead negotiators—Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides conducted candid and in-depth dialogue, exchanged views extensively on economic and trade issues of respective concern, reached agreement in principle on a framework of measures to implement the important consensus from the June 5 telephone conversation between the two heads of state and consolidate the outcomes of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns.

He Lifeng stated that this meeting was an important consultation conducted under the guidance of the strategic consensus reached between the two heads of state on June 5 this year. China's attitude and position on China-US economic and trade issues are clear and consistent. The essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win results. In the economic and trade sphere, cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both. There are no winners in a trade war. China does not wish to fight one, but is not afraid to do so either. The two sides should resolve economic and trade differences through dialogue on an equal footing and mutually beneficial cooperation. China approaches economic and trade consultations with sincerity, but also with principles. Moving forward, the two sides should, following the important consensus and requirements reached during the telephone conversation between the two heads of state, continue to leverage the role of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, continuously enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation. China reiterates that the two sides should move toward each other, match words with deeds and deliver on promises, demonstrate the spirit of good faith in honoring commitments and make earnest efforts to implement consensus, jointly safeguard the hard-won outcomes of dialogue, maintain communication and dialogue, promote steady and sustained progress in China-US economic and trade relations, and inject greater certainty and stability into the world economy.

The US side indicated that this meeting has yielded positive outcomes and further stabilized bilateral economic and trade relations. It will work with China in the same direction to jointly implement the consensus reached at this meeting in accordance with the requirements of the telephone conversation between the two heads of state.

More to read:

Official Readouts from the China-U.S. Trade Talks in London

A framework of a framework