Mainland Sent a Clear Warning to Taiwan's New Leader & Chinese Experts Analyze the Internal Impact of Raisi's Death
Mainland Sent a Clear Warning to Taiwan's New Leader
The leader of the Taiwan region, Lai Ching-te, takes office today. In his first speech at the inauguration, he claimed, “We all know that a country has sovereignty. According to the constitution of the Republic of China, the sovereignty of the Republic of China belongs to the people as a whole.” denied the “1992 Consensus,” which is both sides across the channel belong to the same China.
On the mainland side, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council quickly commented, saying that Lai’s statement has sent dangerous signals of "independence" provocations and undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. I have attached his statement here.
Source:http://www.news.cn/tw/20240520/3603f19676ba4df4bd71f4986e57fdb9/c.html
On May 20th, Chen Binhua commented on the content related to cross-strait relations in the Taiwan region leader's "May 20th" speech. He stated that the current situation in the Taiwan Strait is complex and severe, with the root cause being the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) stubborn adherence to the "Taiwan independence" separatist stance, refusal to acknowledge the "1992 Consensus" that embodies the one-China principle, and continuous "independence" provocations in collusion with external forces. Today's speech by the leader of the Taiwan region stubbornly adheres to the "Taiwan independence" stance, vigorously propagates separatist fallacies, incites cross-strait confrontation, and attempts to "rely on foreign forces to seek independence" and "use force to seek independence." The mainstream public opinion on the island is to seek peace, not war; development, not decline; exchanges, not separation; and cooperation, not confrontation. The leader of the Taiwan region, disregarding public opinion and going against the tide, has sent dangerous signals of "independence" provocations and undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, fully exposing their true nature as a "Taiwan independence worker."
Chen Binhua pointed out that the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. "Taiwan independence" is incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Strait. Our will to solve the Taiwan issue and achieve national reunification is as firm as a rock, our ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unshakable, and our actions to oppose "Taiwan independence" separatism and foreign interference are resolute and powerful. We will never tolerate or condone any form of "Taiwan independence" separatist behavior.
Chen Binhua stated that the motherland must be reunified and will inevitably be reunified. No matter how the situation on the island changes, no matter who is in power, it cannot change the fact that both sides of the strait belong to one China, nor can it change the basic pattern and development direction of cross-strait relations or stop the historical trend of the motherland's eventual reunification. We will fully implement the Party's overall strategy for solving the Taiwan issue in the new era, unswervingly adhere to the one-China principle and the "1992 Consensus," unite the vast majority of Taiwan compatriots, strive to promote the peaceful development and integrated development of cross-strait relations, and unwaveringly advance the great cause of national reunification.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also noted that the one-China principle is the anchor for peace across the Taiwan Straits.
Source: https://www.mfa.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202405/t20240520_11307745.shtml
On May 20, 2024, local time, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Astana. During the meeting, he clarified China's stern position on the "May 20th inauguration ceremony" in the Taiwan region, emphasizing that the One-China principle is the anchor for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Wang Yi pointed out that the One-China principle cannot be violated. There is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is a part of China. This is a historical and legal fact that cannot be changed regardless of how the situation in Taiwan evolves. Recently, many political figures and people from all walks of life, including those from SCO member states, have issued a collective voice of justice to uphold the One-China principle and firmly support China's righteous cause of opposing "independence" and promoting unification. This once again demonstrates that the international community's consensus on adhering to the One-China principle is unshakable. Anyone who attempts to challenge the One-China principle will end in failure. Each time they stir up trouble, the international community's consensus on upholding the One-China principle will be strengthened, and the understanding and support for China's position will be enhanced. This is the principle of gaining more support by following the righteous path and losing support by deviating from it.
"Taiwan independence" separatist actions are not feasible. The Cairo Declaration of 1943 and the Potsdam Proclamation of 1945 clearly stipulated that Taiwan, which was stolen by Japan, should be returned to China. These documents, which have the effect of international law, are part of the post-war order and the collective memory of the international community. "Taiwan independence" separatist actions constitute the most serious challenge to the international order, the most dangerous change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and the most significant disruption to peace in the Taiwan Strait. The One-China principle is the political foundation and prerequisite for China to develop relations with countries around the world, and it is also the anchor for maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait.
The trend of China's unification is irreversible. The Chinese nation has a common belief that the territory cannot be divided, the country cannot be in chaos, the nation cannot be scattered, and the civilization cannot be interrupted. This is the historical inevitability and internal logic of China's eventual unification. The Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, and achieving complete national unification is the unanimous requirement of all Chinese people. It is also a historical trend that no force can stop.
Chinese Experts Analyze the Internal Impact of Raisi's Death
On May 19th, Iranian President Raisi met with visiting Azerbaijani President Aliyev in a border area of East Azerbaijan Province. The helicopter carrying Raisi crashed on the way back to the provincial capital of Tabriz after concluding diplomatic activities. On the 20th, Iranian officials confirmed that Raisi, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian, and several others died in the accident. Chinese President Xi sent a message of condolence to Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber after the incident.
I’ve found some interesting quick analyses by Chinese experts on this issue, including how this will influence Iran and the Middle East.
Professor Fan Hongda at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University wrote a quick analysis of this issue, and he believes that Raisi's death is unlikely to cause significant internal turmoil in Iran due to the country's power structure, it may impact Iranian politics by increasing the likelihood of Supreme Leader Khamenei's son Mojtaba succeeding him, potentially exacerbating public dissatisfaction and damaging Iran's international image as the nation faces a challenging period of political adjustment.
I have attached the translation of his analysis published by China Newsweek.
Source: https://www.inewsweek.cn/world/2024-05-20/22061.shtml
On May 19th, Iranian President Raisi met with visiting Azerbaijani President Aliyev in a border area of East Azerbaijan Province, which was seen as a symbol of the two countries' efforts to ease their rather poor relations in recent years. Unfortunately, the helicopter carrying Raisi crashed on the way back to the provincial capital of Tabriz after concluding diplomatic activities. On the 20th, Iranian officials confirmed that Raisi, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian, and several others died in the accident.
The helicopter carrying the Iranian president and others is believed to have been found to have crashed after 4 p.m. local time on May 19th. When contacting family members in the Iranian-Azerbaijani region, the author was told that the weather in the area changed suddenly at that time, with heavy rain.
After news of the plane crash broke, leaders and official spokespersons from many countries expressed concern or prayers for the safety of Raisi and his party.
The European Commission's Emergency Response Coordination Centre also activated satellite mapping at Iran's request to assist in the search, and Turkish, Russian, and Azerbaijani rescue teams directly joined Iran in searching for the crashed aircraft. From the actions of these countries' leaders and governments, it appears they all viewed this plane crash as a disaster rather than a conspiracy. According to Iranian media reports, the plane crashed in a mountainous area of East Azerbaijan Province that is difficult to access and is also a wildlife corridor. Local friends said that the area is often foggy and quite cold even on summer nights. Video from the rescue scene shows that the previous heavy rain had turned into flying snow by night.
After Raisi's death, his successor is actually quite clear. Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution clearly stipulates that if the president dies, is dismissed, resigns, is absent, or is ill for more than two months, the presidential duties will be assumed by the first vice president with the approval of Iran's supreme leader.
In fact, many Iranians already considered the current first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, to be the real operator of the government. After the crash of the plane Raisi was on, he has already presided over an emergency cabinet meeting. Moreover, countries such as Russia and Iraq have also called him directly.
Compared to the temporary replacement, the future presidential election is attracting more attention. Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution also stipulates that a new presidential election should be arranged within 50 days. Currently, many people believe that the current speaker, Qalibaf, has a great chance. Although former foreign minister Zarif is also mentioned, he basically has no hope as he is seen as belonging to the reformist camp, which is still on the periphery of Iran's decision-making circle. Even if it is not Qalibaf, the new president will be someone else from the conservative camp.
However, voter turnout in the two rounds of parliamentary elections held in March and May this year was very low. If a presidential election is held immediately at this time, voter turnout is not likely to be optimistic either. Therefore, whether a new presidential election will be arranged within 50 days is also a question worth paying attention to.
Also on the same crashed helicopter as Raisi was Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian. Ali Bagheri Kani, the deputy foreign minister in charge of political affairs, is very likely to succeed as foreign minister; he is also the current chief Iranian nuclear negotiator. There are some voices that believe that after Raisi's death, Iran's stability will face serious challenges. But realistically, the possibility of internal turmoil in Iran due to this is not high.
In Iran's power structure, the president is not the most core position. The president does not have decision-making power in matters of national security, ideology, and major foreign policy decisions, while Iran's supreme leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have more influence. To a large extent, the Iranian president is only the executor of national decisions, not the maker.
As mentioned earlier, Iran has a relatively mature mechanism for temporary replacement of the president, and currently, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is already assuming the role of president. It is especially important to note that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has publicly stated that the country's various tasks are proceeding in an orderly manner, reassuring the public that there is no need to worry or be tense. After the plane crash, when communicating with ordinary Iranians, the author indeed did not feel that they had too many concerns.
However, Raisi's death will still have some impact on Iranian politics. In recent years, there has been a lot of attention within Iran on the issue of who will succeed Iran's supreme leader, as Khamenei is already advanced in age. Previously, Raisi and Khamenei's son Mojtaba were both popular candidates to succeed as Iran's supreme leader. Now, in this situation, the possibility of Mojtaba succeeding as leader will further increase.
But if Mojtaba does indeed succeed as leader in the future, this "father-to-son" transfer model will inevitably exacerbate the dissatisfaction of the Iranian people, and Iran's international image is also likely to be further damaged.
In this light, the impact of Raisi's death on the Iranian presidency will not be too great, but the impact on Iranian politics cannot be ignored either. Facing the future, Iran, which has already entered a cycle of political adjustment, will obviously not have an easy time.
Chinese Media The Paper(澎湃新闻) also interviewed several experts from the same institute. Experts say that we need to see how Iran will come up with a new president, whether the election will be held according to the 2025 election timeline or until it is completed within a maximum of 50 days. No matter which one, the Iranian government will focus on domestic appeasement work and prepare for the new president in the near future.
Iran’s acting President, Mohammad Mokhber, has a background in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has long led Iran’s largest foundation, was appointed the First Vice President by Raisi in 2021, and both of them are important representatives of the hardline conservative faction.
Han Jianwei, Associate Professor at the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University, analyzed that If this person assumes the presidency according to the constitution, then Iran's domestic and foreign affairs should not change significantly in the short term. However, Mokhber does not have sufficient prestige, so his government can only be considered a caretaker one. He also believes that in the short term, Khamenei’s control over the situation in Iran should not be a problem. But in the long run, the upcoming presidential election could be an opportunity for the various suppressed and marginalized factions to seek political power again.
Professor Ding Long from the same institute believes that moderate forces in Iran’s political arena have been weakened by both hardliners and their own incompetence in putting forward any reform directions. He predicts that there will be an intense competition among hardliner candidates.
Here I attach the full translation:
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_27439412
Xinhua News Agency reported on May 20, citing Iran's Mehr News Agency, that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter accident. According to previous reports, on the afternoon of the 19th local time, a helicopter carrying the Iranian president, foreign minister, and other accompanying personnel made a hard landing in the Varzaghan area of East Azerbaijan Province. After the accident, Iran quickly organized rescue efforts, but the rescue operation was hindered by difficult traffic conditions in the accident area, as well as mountainous and forested terrain and heavy fog. Raisi's death has sparked widespread attention regarding the future direction of Iran's political landscape, the new presidential election process, and the selection of Iran's supreme leader's successor.
"(Supreme Leader) Khamenei's long-term cultivated candidate has died, which will create the issue of a new successor, leading to political struggle. This struggle mainly comes from within the (Iranian) conservative faction," analyzed Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, for The Paper (www.thepaper.cn). The next point of interest is how the new president will be chosen—whether it will follow the scheduled 2025 election or be concluded within a maximum of 50 days. The subsequent arrangements will depend on official announcements from Iran. According to Article 131 of the Islamic Republic's constitution, if the president dies during his term, the first vice president will take over and be confirmed by the supreme leader, who holds the final decision-making power in all state affairs. A committee composed of the first vice president, the speaker of parliament, and the head of the judiciary must arrange for the election of a new president within no more than 50 days.
"In the coming days, Iran's main focus should be: on the one hand, strengthening the reassurance of the domestic populace, and on the other hand, shifting to the preparation for the new presidential election," analyzed Han Jianwei, an associate professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
Al Jazeera reported that, unlike other countries, Iran's first vice president is an appointed position rather than an elected one. In 1989, Iran made further amendments to its constitution, including abolishing the prime minister's position, with the vice president taking over some of the prime minister's powers.
Shortly after taking office, President Raisi appointed Mohammad Mokhber as the first vice president in August 2021, making him the seventh first vice president since the 1989 constitutional amendment. Mokhber and Raisi are both prominent representatives of the hardline conservative faction.
Iran's presidential election was originally scheduled for 2025. The current first vice president, Mokhber, was born in 1955 in Dezful and previously served as the chairman of Sina Bank and deputy governor of Khuzestan province in the western part of the country.
Al Jazeera reported that before being appointed as the first vice president, Mokhber served for 14 years as the head of the “Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order” (Setad), a powerful economic conglomerate primarily focused on charitable activities.
According to previous reports by China News Service, the "Imam's Order" refers to a decree signed by Iran's first supreme leader, Khomeini, before his death. During the turbulent years following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, many properties were abandoned, and Khomeini's decree led to the creation of an entity to manage and sell these properties.
Reuters estimated in 2013 that the organization held real estate, company shares, and other assets totaling approximately $95 billion. The Islamic Republic News Agency at the time refuted Reuters' series of reports about Khamenei controlling a vast business empire, dismissing them as "rumors" aimed at undermining public trust in the Setad organization.
The agency's editorial stated that Setad played a crucial role in alleviating poverty in Iran's underdeveloped regions and mitigating the impact of economic sanctions on Iran.
"Mokhber, who comes from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has long led Iran's largest domestic foundation and managed assets directly under the supreme leader, should not lead to significant changes in Iran's domestic and foreign policies in the short term if he assumes the presidency according to the constitution," analyzed Han Jianwei. However, Mokhber does not possess sufficient prestige to control the Iranian situation, and his takeover of the government can only be considered a caretaker government.
Do moderates still have a chance?
Currently, Iran is at a relatively critical and sensitive period both domestically and internationally: on the one hand, it is deeply involved in the Israeli-Palestinian situation, with increasing confrontations with Israel and the United States internationally; on the other hand, Iran faces severe economic and livelihood issues domestically. The recently concluded two rounds of parliamentary elections saw very low voter turnout, reflecting the public's attitude towards the government to some extent.
With Supreme Leader Khamenei already 84 years old, the unexpected death of hardliner President Raisi,Xinhua News Agency reported on May 20, citing Iran's Mehr News Agency, that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter accident. According to previous reports, on the afternoon of the 19th local time, a helicopter carrying the Iranian president, foreign minister, and other accompanying personnel made a hard landing in the Varzaghan area of East Azerbaijan Province. After the accident, Iran quickly organized rescue efforts, but the rescue operation was hindered by difficult traffic conditions in the accident area, as well as mountainous and forested terrain and heavy fog. Raisi's death has sparked widespread attention regarding the future direction of Iran's political landscape, the new presidential election process, and the selection of Iran's supreme leader's successor.
"(Supreme Leader) Khamenei's long-term cultivated candidate has died, which will create the issue of a new successor, leading to political struggle. This struggle mainly comes from within the (Iranian) conservative faction," analyzed Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, for The Paper. The next point of interest is how the new president will be chosen—whether it will follow the scheduled 2025 election or be concluded within a maximum of 50 days. The subsequent arrangements will depend on official announcements from Iran. According to Article 131 of the Islamic Republic's constitution, if the president dies during his term, the first vice president will take over and be confirmed by the supreme leader, who holds the final decision-making power in all state affairs. A committee composed of the first vice president, the speaker of parliament, and the head of the judiciary must arrange for the election of a new president within no more than 50 days.
"In the coming days, Iran's main focus should be: on the one hand, strengthening the reassurance of the domestic populace, and on the other hand, shifting to the preparation for the new presidential election," analyzed Han Jianwei, an associate professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
Al Jazeera reported that, unlike other countries, Iran's first vice president is an appointed position rather than an elected one. In 1989, Iran made further amendments to its constitution, including abolishing the prime minister's position, with the vice president taking over some of the prime minister's powers.
Shortly after taking office, President Raisi appointed Mohammad Mokhber as the first vice president in August 2021, making him the seventh first vice president since the 1989 constitutional amendment. Mokhber and Raisi are both prominent representatives of the hardline conservative faction.
Iran's presidential election was originally scheduled for 2025. The current first vice president, Mokhber, was born in 1955 in Dezful and previously served as the chairman of Sina Bank and deputy governor of Khuzestan province in the western part of the country.
Al Jazeera reported that before being appointed as the first vice president, Mokhber served for 14 years as the head of the “Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order” (Setad), a powerful economic conglomerate primarily focused on charitable activities.
According to previous reports by China News Service, the "Imam's Order" refers to a decree signed by Iran's first supreme leader, Khomeini, before his death. During the turbulent years following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, many properties were abandoned, and Khomeini's decree led to the creation of an entity to manage and sell these properties.
Reuters estimated in 2013 that the organization held real estate, company shares, and other assets totaling approximately $95 billion. The Islamic Republic News Agency at the time refuted Reuters' series of reports about Khamenei controlling a vast business empire, dismissing them as "rumors" aimed at undermining public trust in the Setad organization.
The agency's editorial stated that Setad played a crucial role in alleviating poverty in Iran's underdeveloped regions and mitigating the impact of economic sanctions on Iran.
"Mokhber, who comes from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has long led Iran's largest domestic foundation and managed assets directly under the supreme leader, should not lead to significant changes in Iran's domestic and foreign policies in the short term if he assumes the presidency according to the constitution," analyzed Han Jianwei. However, Mokhber does not possess sufficient prestige to control the Iranian situation, and his takeover of the government can only be considered a caretaker government.
Do moderates still have a chance?
Currently, Iran is at a relatively critical and sensitive period both domestically and internationally: on the one hand, it is deeply involved in the Israeli-Palestinian situation, with increasing confrontations with Israel and the United States internationally; on the other hand, Iran faces severe economic and livelihood issues domestically. The recently concluded two rounds of parliamentary elections saw very low voter turnout, reflecting the public's attitude towards the government to some extent.
With Supreme Leader Khamenei already 84 years old, the unexpected death of hardliner President Raisi hasdisrupted the current political landscape in Iran to some extent, making the upcoming presidential election filled with uncertainties. Notably, according to Al-Monitor, an independent news and analysis organization focused on the Middle East, former Iranian President and reformist figure Hassan Rouhani recently issued an open letter fiercely criticizing hardliners for excluding him and other moderates from the crucial clerical body responsible for selecting Khamenei’s successor. On January 24 of this year, the Guardian Council of the Constitution barred Rouhani from participating in the March elections for the Assembly of Experts. At that time, a source close to Rouhani said, "Since 1999, Rouhani has served three consecutive terms as a member of the Assembly of Experts… The reason for his disqualification merits attention."
"In the short term, Khamenei should be able to control the situation in Iran without much difficulty. However, in the long term, if they fail to elect a satisfactory hardline conservative president like Raisi, the upcoming presidential election could become an opportunity for various factions that were previously marginalized to seek political power again. This could lead to a resurgence of factional disputes in Iran, making the future political direction fraught with uncertainties," analyzed Han Jianwei.
In Ding Long's view, over the past decade, the influence of moderate forces in Iranian politics has been significantly weakened. On one hand, they have been suppressed by hardliners, and on the other hand, moderates have lost popularity among the public, having failed to propose viable solutions for Iran's economic and livelihood issues. As a result, moderates have lost their footing both at the top and bottom levels. "The future battle for the Iranian presidency and the supreme leader's successor will be a fierce struggle within the hardline faction," Ding Long said.
Overall, the unexpected demise of President Raisi has introduced a significant variable into Iran's political equation. The next steps will be closely watched, particularly regarding the interim government's actions and the process of electing a new president amidst the existing economic and geopolitical challenges facing Iran.