How Will China-Vietnam Relations Develop during the Post-Nguyen Phu Trong Era?
How Will China-Vietnam Relations Develop during the Post-Nguyen Phu Trong Era?
Professor Zhao Weihua from Fudan University Shares Insights on Vietnam and the Future of China-Vietnam Relations
Today, I bring the observation from Professor Zhao Weihua(赵卫华), who is one of the top Vietnam observers in China. When he was visiting Vietnam for research, it coincided with the national mourning period in the country. He experienced the current social atmosphere in Vietnam. In this essay, he shares his observations and insights from his time in Hanoi and provides his interpretation of the future direction of Vietnam's domestic politics and foreign relations. I think it’s a good start to understand how Chinese academic and policy circles view the relationship.
Zhao is a professor at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, and the director of the Center for China and Neighboring Countries Relations at Fudan University. He has five years of working and studying experience in Vietnam. He has a multidisciplinary background in anthropology, history, political science, and international relations.
Professor Zhao Weihua Source: Fudan University
The article was first published on Phoenix International Think Tank; after being authorized by the editor, I made a short summary and translation. For those who can read Chinese, I highly recommend to check out the original text.
In short, the author believes that as a beloved national leader, Nguyen Phu Trong inherited the modernization of Vietnam, which was initiated by Nong Duc Manh and led Vietnam's development and transformation from industrialization to informatization. During his tenure, Vietnam achieved remarkable economic development, continued to advance political reforms, introduced the "four horses" +1, also known as the "five cores" system, and proposed “bamboo diplomacy.” Despite the constant courting by the United States and the West, he maintained the principle of independent and autonomous diplomacy. This article believes that after the passing of Nguyen Phu Trong, in terms of the arrangement of successors, the current State President, To Lam, has been elected as the new General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam. This means that To Lam now occupies two positions among the "four horses," and Vietnam's highest power structure may become a three horses +1 or four cores state for at least the next year and a half. Barring any unexpected circumstances, individuals such as To Lam, Pham Minh Chinh, Luong Cuong, Tran Thanh Man, and Phan Van Giang will likely dominate the next highest power core. In the next highest power structure, personnel from the public security and military departments will exceed the proportion in the 13th National Congress, and it is even possible that they may occupy an absolute majority in the Politburo.
In terms of diplomacy, he believes Vietnam will continue to pursue a policy of balancing major powers and maintaining a balance between China and the United States. The construction of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future signifies a comprehensive deepening of bilateral relations, surpassing Vietnam's strategic partnerships with Western countries. When facing the remaining maritime rights and interests issues, the two countries have already established understanding and trust during the resolution of land border issues, so they can definitely resolve their differences through peaceful negotiations.
The Political Situation and Foreign Policy Direction of Vietnam after Nguyen Phu Trong
Vietnam during the National Mourning Period
On the second day after the passing of General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, my colleagues, several Chinese investors, and I landed at Noi Bai International Airport. Despite rumors suggesting that various venues would be closed during the national mourning period, we noticed no differences at the airport or customs compared to previous visits. We were concerned about the potential impact on our planned activities, such as seminars and field trips. I was particularly worried about the closure of the National Political Publishing House bookstore and other bookstores I frequently visit, as they are my must-visit spots in Hanoi. However, after passing through customs, our concerns were quickly dispelled.
Our hotel, located near Giang Vo Road and Tran Huy Lieu Road in Hanoi, is approximately 23 kilometers from the airport, connected by the highway. On the way to the city center, we crossed the Red River Bridge. The Red River, known as the Yuan River in China, originates in Dali and merges with the Nanxi River at Hekou, Yunnan, before flowing into Vietnam. It passes through Hanoi and empties into the Gulf of Tonkin at Haiphong. Dong Anh District, the hometown of General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, lies on the other side of the Red River Bridge. Nguyen Phu Trong was born on April 14, 1944, in Dong Hoi Commune, Dong Anh District, and spent most of his life there, except for his years studying in the Soviet Union.
As we left the airport at dusk, we observed orderly traffic, bustling streets, and shops operating as usual. People were walking around the lake or chatting under the shade of trees. The hotel staff greeted us with their usual smiles and politeness. After checking in, I listened to Vietnamese broadcasts on my portable radio. Although most channels were reporting on Nguyen Phu Trong's passing, some urban channels continued to broadcast economic, financial, traffic, and cultural programs.
During the national mourning period, Vietnam's pace did not halt. People continued to live and work, and society operated normally. Apart from the news of Nguyen Phu Trong's passing on television, radio, and newspapers, life in Hanoi seemed unchanged. Even Ba Dinh Square, the National Assembly Building, and the Presidential Palace did not lower their flags to half-mast until the 22nd, as per regulations for the two-day state funeral on the 25th and 26th.
When asked about Nguyen Phu Trong, ordinary Vietnamese people often describe him as a good, honest, and upright leader. These simple, heartfelt evaluations reflect his position in the hearts of the Vietnamese people and their recognition of him. He worked tirelessly for Vietnam until his last moment, leaving behind a stable society, a rapidly developing economy, and an increasingly prominent international status. After returning to China on the 26th, I watched videos of the people of Hanoi seeing him off at his funeral, a scene that had only occurred once before, during General Vo Nguyen Giap's funeral. These spontaneous actions by the Vietnamese people reflect their respect and recognition for him.
Nguyen Phu Trong's leadership achievements and contributions
Nguyen Phu Trong is one of the longest-serving leaders in contemporary Vietnamese history, with a tenure of 13 years, second only to President Ho Chi Minh's 24 years (1945-1969) and Le Duan's 17 years (1969-1986). He is also the longest-serving Vietnamese leader since the Doi Moi reform and opening up, and one of the few top leaders of the Communist Party of Vietnam to pass away while in office, after Ho Chi Minh and Le Duan.
During his 13-year rule, he devoted himself wholeheartedly to Vietnam, working until his last moment. He took over from Nong Duc Manh, a Vietnam with political stability, rapid economic development, and growing international stature. However, he did not stop at being a leader who merely maintained the status quo. Instead, he led Vietnam to continue moving forward, making a series of pioneering achievements in economic development, diplomatic expansion, institutional building, anti-corruption, cultural theory, and national unity. It is particularly worth mentioning that despite suffering a severe impact from the pandemic, Vietnam's economic growth rate still reached over 8%, the highest growth rate since the Doi Moi reform and opening up, making it one of the most popular markets globally. When he passed away, Vietnam was at its best in all aspects of history.
in terms of economic and social development, during Nguyen Phu Trong's 13-year rule, Vietnam's economy maintained a medium-to-high growth rate of over 5-6%. In the last five years of his tenure, Vietnam's economy has achieved a high growth rate of 7-8% at one point, becoming one of the most attractive markets for foreign investors in the world.
In 2011, when Nguyen Phu Trong took over Vietnam, the country had just experienced a golden decade under Nong Duc Manh's governance. Although Vietnam's economy was developing rapidly, society was becoming increasingly stable, and its international status was continuously improving, it had just crossed the threshold of a lower-middle-income country. Compared with Vietnam in the 1990s, it had undergone earth-shaking changes, but compared with other countries in the world, Vietnam still appeared to be very backward. At that time, Vietnam's GDP was US$115.9 billion, and its per capita GDP was US$1,318, even lower than that of neighboring Laos at one point. In 2024, when he left, Vietnam's GDP was US$430 billion, and its per capita GDP was US$4,284, both nearly four times the level of 13 years ago.
If it can be said that Nong Duc Manh's achievement was leading Vietnam from chaos to stability, restoring people's confidence, initially improving Vietnam's international status, and starting the stage of Vietnam's modernization, then Nguyen Phu Trong undoubtedly led Vietnam to develop from the stage of subsistence to the stage of moderate prosperity, leading Vietnam to transform from industrialization to informatization.
Around 2010, although Vietnam's modernization had begun, it was far behind its neighbors in terms of various indicators. For example, at that time, taxis had to be hailed by stopping on the roadside or calling the driver, which was not only inconvenient for foreigners on business trips to Vietnam but also inconvenient for locals. All kinds of daily commodity transactions were carried out in physical stores, with no trace of e-commerce at all, let alone after-sales service. In 2019, the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam passed a resolution to ride the fast train of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and realize the country's digitalization. At the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the party also proposed Vietnam's version of the "Two Centenaries" goals, proposing to build Vietnam into a preliminarily industrialized modern country by the 100th anniversary of the party's founding in 2030, and to build Vietnam into a modern socialist industrialized power by the 100th anniversary of independence in 2045, realizing the country's modernization and making Vietnam a developed country.
Under the guidance of the resolution of the 13th National Congress, the Vietnamese government proposed the "National Digital Transformation Plan" in 2021, proposing a comprehensive digital transformation of the country. In just a few years, Vietnam's social landscape has undergone tremendous changes in all aspects. Not only has the country's degree of modernization greatly improved, but its degree of informatization has also developed from scratch at an unprecedented speed. In Hanoi, people can directly use Grab to hail a car, order takeout, shop online, and send express delivery without leaving home. The convenience brought by digitalization and informatization has quickly covered every corner of cities and surrounding towns and villages in just ten years. Vietnam's overall digitalization and informatization scale ranks second in ASEAN, and its per capita development level ranks fourth. It is expected that in terms of per capita development level, Vietnam will be second only to Singapore by 2030.
In diplomacy, Nguyen Phu Trong continued to adhere to the pragmatic foreign policy of making more friends and fewer enemies and serving Vietnam's national interests. He continued to maintain a balance among major powers, especially between China and the United States, bringing Vietnam's international status and environment to the best state since its independence in 1945. During his second term, Nguyen Phu Trong emphasized that Vietnam's diplomacy should embody the character and national spirit of the Vietnamese nation, like bamboo, which is both strong and flexible, to safeguard Vietnam's national interests. He particularly stressed that even if bamboo is bent 180 degrees, it will still stand upright when the external pressure disappears. He used this to emphasize that Vietnam will never easily give up its pursuit of goals. At times, Vietnam may temporarily compromise and make concessions in diplomacy, but it will never abandon its long-term goals.
Guided by this bamboo spirit, Nguyen Phu Trong consistently adhered to the principle of safeguarding national interests based on core national interests. He emphasized that Vietnam currently faces an unprecedented peaceful international environment, and its biggest task is to leverage this favorable environment for its own development. He particularly stressed maintaining the unity of the country's peaceful development environment and national sovereignty, emphasizing the need to safeguard national sovereignty under the premise of maintaining a peaceful international environment.
Under the guidance of the above thoughts, during his tenure, Vietnam continued to consolidate and deepen its strategic partnerships with traditionally friendly countries such as Russia and India and upgraded its relations with the United States and Japan to comprehensive strategic partnerships. Notably, it was during his tenure that China and Vietnam reached a consensus on jointly building a strategically significant China-Vietnam community with a shared future, making the China-Vietnam relationship unique among Vietnam's relations with major powers.
In terms of institutional building, Nguyen Phu Trong continued to adhere to the reform policies of the Nong Duc Manh era. Building on the "four pillars" system strengthened during Nong Duc Manh's period, he further introduced the "four pillars + 1" or "five cores" system. Additionally, he expanded the proportion of National Assembly members elected through competitive elections, introduced the National Assembly vote of confidence system, and further promoted the deepening and improvement of Vietnam's socialist democratic system. Although Vietnam's highest power structure after the reunification of North and South Vietnam consisted of the Party General Secretary, the Head of State, the Government, and the National Assembly, the status of the National Assembly leader was not on par with the other three leaders until the early stages of the Doi Moi reform and opening up. It was not until Nong Duc Manh served as the Chairman of the National Assembly that all four leaders were members of the Politburo Standing Committee (the Politburo Standing Committee was abolished after the 10th National Congress, and now there are only Politburo members). After Nong Duc Manh's administration, the power structure of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the President, the Prime Minister, and the Chairman of the National Assembly gradually became known to the outside world.
After the 11th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong assumed the position of General Secretary. In addition to the "four pillars" of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the President, the Prime Minister, and the Chairman of the National Assembly, the Standing Secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam was added to the highest power core, evolving the "four pillars" system into the "four pillars + 1" or "five cores" mechanism. Among the five individuals, although the status of the Standing Secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee is not yet on par with the "four pillars," their role and influence in Vietnam's political life are increasing. Since Nguyen Phu Trong was first elected as the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the individuals who have served as the Standing Secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee include Dinh The Huynh, Tran Quoc Vuong, Vo Van Thuong, Truong Thi Mai, and Tran Tuan Anh. Among them, Dinh The Huynh, Tran Quoc Vuong, and Vo Van Thuong were all highly favored candidates to succeed the General Secretary at one point. Although none of the three ultimately became the final choice for the General Secretary due to various reasons, the status of the Standing Secretary of the Secretariat in Vietnam's highest power structure has been increasingly elevated.
Another initiative of Nguyen Phu Trong was to reform Vietnam's National Assembly supervision system. Based on the National Assembly's questioning system, he introduced the vote of confidence system, which evaluates key officials, including the President, Vice President, Chairman and Vice Chairmen of the National Assembly, Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Ministers, and ministers, through a vote of confidence. The vote of confidence takes place after the National Assembly's questioning session and is conducted once a year. National Assembly deputies' votes are divided into three categories: high, confidence, and low. If the low confidence votes exceed 50%, the relevant officials will be considered as lacking the confidence of National Assembly deputies and the people and must resign early without waiting for the end of their term. So far, although no key officials have had their terms ended through a vote by the National Assembly, in reality, major leaders such as Pham Binh Minh, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Vu Duc Dam, Vo Van Thuong, and Vuong Dinh Hue have resigned through voluntary resignation. This system has actually put tremendous pressure on officials in office and played an important role in improving governance and promoting social progress.
Resolutely and continuously fighting corruption. During the first decade of the Doi Moi reform, due to lack of experience and the impact of the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, Vietnam experienced successive political and economic crises in the 1990s. The inflation rate remained above 1,000% for several consecutive years, and the Vietnamese dong depreciated sharply in this situation. Under these circumstances, social chaos and corruption also reached an extremely serious level, to the extent that many Vietnamese scholars refer to this period as the "10 years of defending socialism." It was not until Nong Duc Manh's administration that a series of institutional reforms and anti-corruption measures were implemented to consolidate the socialist system and improve the Communist Party of Vietnam's image in the hearts of the people.
Nguyen Phu Trong, a long-time theorist in the Communist Party's propaganda system, made significant contributions to the party's theoretical and cultural development. He wrote extensively on party building, culture, and socio-economic issues, including works such as "Developing and Constructing Bamboo Diplomacy with Strong Vietnamese National Cultural Characteristics" and "Resolutely and Persistently Promoting the Fight Against Corruption and Negativity, Striving to Build an Increasingly Clean and Strong Party and State."
As General Secretary, Nguyen Phu Trong emphasized the importance of building a national culture and promoting national unity. In 2012, Vietnam proposed developing Vietnamese-style socialism with strong national cultural characteristics, reflecting increased national confidence after a decade of rapid economic growth. Nguyen Phu Trong advocated uniting all forces and ethnic groups to build Vietnam while cracking down on a small number of anti-communist and anti-Vietnam exiles engaging in subversion. He also sought reconciliation with former South Vietnamese regime exiles to gather support for Vietnam's economic development.
Vietnam's Future Foreign Strategy and the Trajectory of China-Vietnam Relations
Former General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Van Linh, clearly reflected on Vietnam's one-sided policy toward the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War, explicitly proposing to reduce enemies and increase friends and expressing willingness to become friends with all countries. Since the Doi Moi reform and opening up, Vietnam's foreign policy has been built on this policy basis and has developed into a great power-balancing diplomacy in subsequent diplomatic practices, maintaining a diplomatic balance among major powers such as China, the United States, Russia, and Japan to maximize the protection of Vietnam's national interests.
With the rise of China and the improvement of Vietnam's international status, the United States and other Western countries have attempted to use Vietnam to counter China. To this end, the United States, Japan, and other countries have increased their efforts to woo Vietnam since around 2009, trying to make Vietnam a strategic fulcrum for confronting and containing China. Vietnam is, of course, very clear about the intentions of the United States and Western countries. However, Vietnam is not content with becoming a tool for great powers to engage in geopolitical confrontation; instead, it makes every effort to maximize Vietnam's interests. To this end, in addition to continuing to pursue a great power-balancing diplomacy policy among major powers, Vietnam has particularly emphasized the need to maintain an impartial diplomacy between China and the United States, maintaining a balance between the two countries and safeguarding Vietnam's national interests by simultaneously maintaining friendly relations with both countries.
Vietnam's foreign policy and strategic starting point and destination are both to serve Vietnam's national interests. In a speech delivered at a foreign affairs work conference in 2022, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong proposed to carry forward the bamboo spirit of the Vietnamese nation in the field of diplomacy, adhere to an independent, autonomous, peaceful, friendly, cooperative, developing, diversified, and multilateralized foreign policy line, and resolutely defend Vietnam's national interests. Nguyen Phu Trong emphasized that even if bamboo is bent 180 degrees, it will still stand upright when external pressure disappears. He emphasized that Vietnam's diplomacy should be both strong and flexible, adaptable and resilient, but not extreme.
Although General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has passed away, the above policies are not his personal views but rather a consensus in Vietnam. Therefore, despite the United States and the West constantly increasing their efforts to woo Vietnam based on its fundamental interests, it is absolutely impossible for Vietnam to lean toward the West completely. Therefore, those concerns about whether Vietnam will completely lean toward the United States and the West are quite unnecessary. Those efforts to make Vietnam lean toward the United States and the West are nothing but a fantasy and will ultimately only lead to disappointment.
In fact, since its independence in 1945, after experiencing more than 70 years of ups and downs, Vietnam's diplomacy has become increasingly mature. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and the West repeatedly put pressure on Vietnam to condemn Russia, but Vietnam remained unmoved and insisted on adopting a neutral policy between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, some politicians and scholars, including former Vietnamese Deputy Defense Minister General Nguyen Chi Vinh, have also discussed related issues. They recalled and reflected on their country's history and clearly concluded that Vietnam's diplomacy can no longer follow the old one-sided path and should take history and the current plight of Ukraine as a reference, adhere to an independent, autonomous, and peaceful diplomatic policy, develop friendly relations with all countries simultaneously, and not ally with one country against another.
Regarding territorial and maritime rights and interests, China and Vietnam, of course, have differences, which is undeniable. However, these differences are partially compared to the overall situation of long-term friendly cooperation between China and Vietnam. One of the important reasons why China and Vietnam can reach a consensus on jointly building a China-Vietnam community with a shared future is that both sides believe that compared to the overall and long-term strategic interests of the two countries, the partial differences that have not yet been resolved should not affect the overall situation of friendly cooperation between the two countries. As brother countries connected by mountains and rivers, it is believed that the people of the two countries have sufficient wisdom to resolve their differences and ultimately find a mutually acceptable solution. The differences between China and Vietnam regarding territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests once included land border disputes, Gulf of Tonkin delimitation disputes, and maritime issues. Currently, the land border disputes and the Gulf of Tonkin delimitation disputes have been satisfactorily resolved, and the only remaining unresolved dispute is the maritime issue.
It needs to be emphasized that the land border disputes were basically resolved through peaceful negotiations, with the two countries dividing the disputed areas equally, while the solution to the Gulf of Tonkin disputes took into account Vietnam's interests. The above facts show that the two countries governments and peoples can find ways to resolve differences and also show that China has never lacked goodwill in resolving differences. It is believed that in the process of resolving differences between China and Vietnam, the Vietnamese side has also fully felt China's sincerity and goodwill. After the resolution of the land border disputes and the Gulf of Tonkin delimitation disputes, the differences between the two countries have greatly reduced compared to before, but we must also recognize that maritime disputes are far more complex than the previous two disputes, and it will still take time to achieve a complete resolution. Both sides should have strategic patience in this regard and should not let partial differences affect the development of the overall friendly situation between the two countries.
At present, China-Vietnam relations are in the best state since 1991, and friendship between the two countries is the common aspiration of the peoples of both countries and is in line with their common interests. However, some countries today still adhere to Cold War thinking, constantly stirring up geopolitical confrontation and even attempting to lure other countries to act as their geopolitical tools to besiege and contain China. Even so, it is difficult for these countries to change the general trend of China-Vietnam friendship, but both China and Vietnam should have a clear understanding of the intentions of external forces. Both sides need to move towards each other, show more great wisdom, release more goodwill, focus on the long-term, view the relations between the two countries from a strategic perspective, not be confused by immediate petty gains, not be moved by instigation from external forces, and continue to promote the further development of China-Vietnam friendship.