So cut demand to bolster domestic prices? – I don't think so. However, it could limit "grey" exports by dealers or other non-OEM players, so help the better-run OEMs build up their distribution networks. As per the article.
However ...
Licensing exports is not the same as limiting grey-market imports, because once vehicles are on a ship, ownership passes through many more hands before reaching the final (initial) owner, and once registered it's a used vehicle which opens up more and even less controlled distribution channels. Now the new rule(s) look like they may cover used vehicles, as the draft states "...enterprises applying for..." which could then be strictly applied. Now back in the bad old days the Chinese government was unable to restrict grey market imports, I met an entrepreneur / dealer (in Hong Kong) who sold 5,000 Nissans in one day, all grey market, to an entity on the Chinese side (Guangdong Prefecture, but maybe Guangzhou) with an unused hard currency allocation. That would have been at the tail end of the 1980s or early 1990s, I won't pull out books to pin down when that forex regime ended.
Nissan, or at least moderately senior people on Nissan's export side, had to know because of the number of vehicles, however Nissan has a long history of shady shenanigans. Pressure at Chinese OEMs for revenue today may overcome internal barriers to investing in distribution for the long term. So what the MIIT / Customs or whomever is told (and potentially what the top at the car company are [traceably] told may not be what happens on the water, or on the ground once cars are unloaded.
So cut demand to bolster domestic prices? – I don't think so. However, it could limit "grey" exports by dealers or other non-OEM players, so help the better-run OEMs build up their distribution networks. As per the article.
However ...
Licensing exports is not the same as limiting grey-market imports, because once vehicles are on a ship, ownership passes through many more hands before reaching the final (initial) owner, and once registered it's a used vehicle which opens up more and even less controlled distribution channels. Now the new rule(s) look like they may cover used vehicles, as the draft states "...enterprises applying for..." which could then be strictly applied. Now back in the bad old days the Chinese government was unable to restrict grey market imports, I met an entrepreneur / dealer (in Hong Kong) who sold 5,000 Nissans in one day, all grey market, to an entity on the Chinese side (Guangdong Prefecture, but maybe Guangzhou) with an unused hard currency allocation. That would have been at the tail end of the 1980s or early 1990s, I won't pull out books to pin down when that forex regime ended.
Nissan, or at least moderately senior people on Nissan's export side, had to know because of the number of vehicles, however Nissan has a long history of shady shenanigans. Pressure at Chinese OEMs for revenue today may overcome internal barriers to investing in distribution for the long term. So what the MIIT / Customs or whomever is told (and potentially what the top at the car company are [traceably] told may not be what happens on the water, or on the ground once cars are unloaded.