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Leon Liao's avatar

I strongly agree with Fred's point of view.

China’s pension system still reflects a deeply entrenched status hierarchy: retired public-sector employees receive several times more than enterprise retirees, while rural residents often receive barely enough to cover a few days of basic living costs. Fred is right to reject the lazy argument that farmers “didn’t pay in.” They paid in through decades of land transfers, suppressed agricultural prices, and the long historical sacrifice that financed China’s industrialization and urbanization.

What I would add is that this is not only a welfare issue. It is also a structural issue of fiscal priorities and institutional fairness. China has largely completed formal pension unification on paper, but in actual benefit levels, the old divide remains very much alive. If Beijing is serious about boosting consumption, narrowing the urban-rural gap, and making public services more equal, then raising rural pensions is one of the highest-return reforms available.

According to my previous research paper, as of the end of 2023, about 173 million people were actually receiving benefits under China’s basic pension insurance scheme for urban and rural residents. Total annual fund expenditure was RMB 461.3 billion, which translates into an average monthly pension of only about RMB 222 per recipient. By comparison, the average monthly basic pension for urban employees was about RMB 3,200, while retirees from government agencies and public institutions received roughly RMB 6,000 to 7,000 per month. The absolute gap in pension benefits across these three groups is therefore as high as around 30 times. In terms of replacement rates, the pension for urban and rural residents is estimated at less than 15% of pre-retirement income, far below the roughly 46% level for urban employees and around 80% for civil servants. Regionally, the pension for urban and rural residents is about RMB 924 in Beijing and around RMB 1,300 in Shanghai, while in most central and western provinces it remains only around RMB 100 to 200. The article further argues that this gap is the result of multiple overlapping factors, including differences in institutional design, financing structures, historical accumulation, fiscal capacity, population mobility, and status-based welfare spillovers. International comparisons show that Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, and the United States have all established either unified or dedicated systems that provide farmers with substantially higher pension levels. Estimates suggest that raising China’s urban and rural resident pension to RMB 500, RMB 800, or RMB 1,000 per month would require additional annual fiscal spending of roughly RMB 600 billion, RMB 1.2 trillion, and RMB 1.6 trillion, respectively, equivalent to only about 1.2%, 2.2%, and 3% of broad fiscal expenditure, making such reform financially feasible.

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