Heading Towards a New Normal or Greater Turbulence? DA Wei on China-US Relations
Director of Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University on China-US Relations After the Election
On Sep.29, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies held a panel on current China-US relations and invited Professor DA Wei. Although I was unable to attend, several of my colleagues were present and kindly shared their notes with me. Professor DA Wei provided his observations on the current election and US society, as well as his policy suggestion on how China should try to manage the relations. He highlighted the "wild imagination" that has developed on both sides in recent years, largely due to the lack of communication caused by the pandemic. Having spent the first half of 2020 in Washington, I couldn't agree more on that. After receiving his authorization, I was able to share the translated notes of his speech.
Professor DA Wei is the Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) and a professor in the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University. His research focuses on China-US relations and US security & foreign policy. Da Wei is also a vice president of the Chinese Association of American Studies and holds board positions in various academic organizations. He earned his Ph.D. from CICIR and has been a visiting scholar at several prestigious US institutions, including Stanford University in 2024.
Below is the translation based on the notes and references from articles published by the Chongyang Institute's official WeChat account: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oKUeAm1syadWpO1NJBFOsA
China-U.S. Academic Exchange in the Post-Pandemic Era:
As one of the Chinese academics with the most frequent visits to the United States since the pandemic's end, Professor Da has made six trips to the US this year and three last year. His experiences, including a three-month visiting scholarship at Stanford University earlier this year, have provided him with comprehensive insights into various regions of the United States.
Professor Da observes that the United States maintains its dynamism despite challenges like inflation and income inequality. The US economy shows resilience through steady growth, strong employment figures, and robust stock market performance. The West Coast, in particular, exemplifies this vitality with its rapid technological innovation, abundant capital flows, and concentration of talent.
Nevertheless, Professor Da notes a growing disparity between China and the United States, especially in technological capabilities. While this technological gap presents significant challenges, he maintains optimism about China's economic fundamentals, provided appropriate policies are implemented. He believes China's total economic output could still eventually exceed that of the United States in the long term.
About China-US Relations:
He pointed out that in recent years, US-China relations have been complex and volatile, with increasing friction between the two countries in multiple areas, including trade, technology, and military affairs, leading their relationship into a new phase of "coexistence of competition and cooperation." Against this backdrop, how US-China relations will develop has become a focus of attention across various sectors.
Professor Da Wei first emphasized that the structural issues in US-China relations won't change due to any short-term factors. He pointed out that strategic competition between China and the US has become a new normal, and whether Trump is re-elected or Harris replaces Biden as the next US president, the competitive dynamic between both sides won't fundamentally reverse.
Although US-China relations entered a relatively stable phase last year, this stability is more of a "surface-level calm." Professor Da Wei illustrated this with an example: at an international conference he attended last year, although the dialogue between Chinese and American scholars was relatively peaceful, sharp disagreements remained on many issues, particularly regarding US-China technology competition and economic policies, where antagonistic sentiments remained strong between both sides.
Policy Prediction After Trump and Harris Election:
Professor Da Wei specifically discussed in detail the potential impacts on US-China relations if Trump is re-elected as president. He believes that Trump's re-election would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, particularly with potential escalation of confrontations in economic, trade, and technology sectors.
Trade and Economic Domain: Escalation of Trade War and Tariff Policies
Professor Da Wei pointed out that if Trump is re-elected, he would likely continue and even intensify his hard-line policies toward China that were implemented during 2017-2020. Specifically, Trump would likely restart the trade war with China and pressure China through tariffs and other economic measures. He mentioned that based on Trump's previous statements, the Trump administration might raise tariffs on Chinese goods from 35% to 60%, which would be a major shock to US-China trade relations.
Furthermore, Trump might use monetary and tax policies to further push American capital to withdraw from the Chinese market, attempting to suppress China's development through economic means. These policies would not only bring more uncertainty to US-China economic and trade relations but could also further intensify global supply chain volatility.
Technology Domain: Strengthening Technology Blockade Against China
In the technology sector, Professor Da Wei predicts that if Trump is re-elected, he will take a tougher stance on technology competition. He pointed out that the Trump administration might restart the "China Initiative" and comprehensively strengthen suppression of China's technology sector, especially in critical technology areas like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, where the U.S. might further restrict Chinese companies' access to technology. Professor Da Wei emphasized that technology competition is the most sensitive and long-term impactful aspect of U.S.-China relations. As the U.S. government strengthens its technology blockade against China, tech competition between the two countries will intensify. Although China has made significant progress in certain areas, it will still face enormous challenges in technological innovation, given U.S. blockades and suppression.
Military Domain: Increasing Military Pressure on China
In the military sphere, if Trump is re-elected, his administration would likely continue to strengthen the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and increase military pressure on China through offshore balancing and other means. Professor Da Wei noted that Trump's team might invest more resources in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly taking a tougher stance on the South China Sea and Taiwan issues, attempting to counterbalance China's rise through military means.
Compared to Trump, Harris's policy positions are relatively moderate, but Professor Da Wei pointed out that Harris's China policy wouldn't significantly deviate from the Biden administration's framework. In economic, technological, and military domains, Harris would continue the Biden administration's competitive strategy toward China, but her policies might place more emphasis on multilateral cooperation and alliance systems.
Economic and Trade Policy: Continuing Competitive Stance
In economics and trade, Professor Da Wei noted that while Harris opposes Trump's high tariff policies, she hasn't promised to relax restrictions on China. During her campaign, Harris clearly stated that tariffs on imported goods increase the burden on low and middle-income families, so she wouldn't impose large-scale tariffs like Trump. However, overall, the Harris administration would maintain a competitive stance toward China in the economic domain, especially in pushing China to implement structural economic reforms and maintain U.S. dominance in global trade, though she would adopt more nuanced strategies.
Human Rights Issues: Increasing Pressure on China
Harris's position on sensitive issues like human rights might be firmer than Trump's. Professor Da Wei pointed out that during her Senate tenure, Harris pushed for the passage of multiple bills concerning Hong Kong and Xinjiang. After taking office, she might continue to pressure China on human rights issues, particularly using human rights as an important diplomatic tool in cooperation with allies. This would bring new challenges to U.S.-China relations and potentially further intensify confrontations between both sides in diplomatic and public opinion spheres.
Military and Diplomatic Policy: Emphasis on Multilateral Cooperation
In military and diplomatic policy, the Harris administration would continue promoting the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and strengthen cooperation with allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Professor Da Wei believes Harris's foreign policy would place greater emphasis on multilateral cooperation, especially regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan issues. While likely maintaining a tough stance similar to the Biden administration, her strategy would focus more on joint actions with allies, avoiding unilateralism.
Macro Perspective: The Nature of U.S.-China Strategic Competition
He pointed out that changes in U.S.-China relations reflect not just policy adjustments but also transformations in both countries' domestic development models.
From a macro perspective on the China-U.S. strategic game. After the 1990s, China-U.S. relations generally improved, mainly due to the push of globalization and neoliberalism. In this context, economic development and efficiency were seen as primary goals, and the free flow of capital, information, and personnel became mainstream ideas. As the largest developed country and the largest developing country, China and the U.S. naturally formed a deep interdependent relationship under this framework. Moreover, the U.S. position as the sole superpower after the end of the Cold War and China's relatively weak national strength also provided a basis for stable relations between the two countries.
However, things began to change after 2008. Starting with the Obama administration, U.S. policy gradually showed a consistent logic: the era of globalization supported by neoliberalism was over, and the U.S. and other countries began to develop more nationalist economic agendas. This shift stemmed from a series of domestic issues in the U.S., such as widening wealth gaps and industrial hollowing out. This adjustment by the U.S. can be said to be inevitable and is also a legitimate right as a sovereign state.
At the same time, although China developed rapidly in the 1990s and 2000s, it also faced its own challenges, such as wealth disparity and corruption. Unlike the U.S., China recognized that relying solely on producing low-end products would make it difficult to become an economically developed country, so it began to use institutional and policy space to promote industrial upgrading through government support, industrial policies, and technology policies. While this approach seemed reasonable to China and feasible within WTO rules and sovereign scope, it inevitably conflicted with U.S. interests.
Moreover, changes in the global order, from U.S. hegemony to managing a great power structure after China's rise, also brought new challenges to China-U.S. relations.
These factors collectively led to the transformation of China-U.S. relations. Driven by their respective national interests and development strategies, the two countries inevitably moved towards some degree of "decoupling." This trend reflects the deep contradictions in the globalization process and the complexity of dynamic changes in great power relations.
Both China and the U.S. currently face dual challenges: on the one hand, they need to address issues of unfairness and injustice brought by economic development and manage the negative effects of economic development; on the other hand, they need to find new positioning in the changing international landscape. These challenges have led to a fundamental transformation in the relationship between the two countries.
Summary: The Future of U.S.-China Relations and China's Strategic Response
In his conclusion, Professor Da Wei offered perspectives on the medium to long-term outlook for U.S.-China relations. He indicated that future developments in bilateral relations will depend on how both sides respond to changes in their domestic and international environments. China needs to maintain strategic patience in global competition and respond to U.S. challenges by strengthening independent innovation and economic resilience.
Professor Da Wei emphasized that U.S.-China relations represent not just great power competition but also a contest between different development models. In this process, China must firmly grasp the strategic picture of the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" and ensure high-quality development amid a complex international environment. He urged Chinese academic and policy circles to approach U.S.-China relations with a long-term perspective and systematic thinking, avoiding short-term reactive responses and gradually forming a comprehensive understanding of U.S.-China strategic competition.
Q&A:
Audience Question 1:
Domestic entrepreneurs are concerned about whether Trump if elected, would continue the "small yard, high fence" strategy or pursue complete decoupling and whether flexible handling of the Taiwan issue might trigger the U.S.-China conflict. If Harris is elected, would U.S.-China security competition remain controllable?
Da Wei's Response:
If Trump is elected, technology policy will continue the "small yard, high fence" strategy, but restrictions on tariffs, investment, and tech cooperation would expand with a broader impact. Harris might stabilize or reduce some restrictions. Regarding Taiwan, while Trump may not want war, his policies could escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, particularly through increased arms sales and aid, raising conflict risks. Accidental conflicts are more likely than Trump actively initiating war.
Audience Question 2:
How do recently established China-focused institutions like the "China House" function in strategic competition with China? Do they serve as guardrails for China policy? What dynamics might emerge in future reforms of these institutions?
Da Wei's Response:
U.S. institutions like "China House" were established mainly to improve internal coordination and policy efficiency. These mechanisms integrate resources from different departments to make U.S China policy more fact-based and decision-making more efficient. While these institutions have improved U.S. decision-making, their effectiveness depends on overall U.S. strategy toward China. For example, during the balloon incident, this mechanism helped with rapid communication and crisis management, but final decisions still depended on top leadership. Therefore, the institutions themselves are neutral; their impact depends on policy direction.
Audience Question 3:
Given China's recent success in international conflict management, how might future diplomatic efforts in this area be influenced by the U.S.? What role does the U.S. play in China's international conflict management?
Da Wei's Response:
While U.S.-China shared interests exist, cooperation remains difficult, especially in areas like climate change and public health, where interest disputes often hinder collaboration. Regarding conflict management, he believes the U.S. won't strongly negatively impact China's mediation efforts. Although U.S. global influence is declining, it won't deliberately undermine Chinese mediation. For example, the Iran-Saudi reconciliation, while causing complex emotions in the U.S., didn't fundamentally harm U.S. interests. In the future, with more stable U.S.-China relations, the U.S. might support China playing a larger mediation role, benefiting the global community.